Analysis: France's far right is now the dominating political force.

Majumdar Group
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 Analysis: France's far right is now the dominating political force.

National Rally has experienced a surge in support and is on track to become the largest party in the National Assembly. 

The far-right National Rally (RN) has scored another triumph and is well on its way to upending French politics. 

There will be much talk in the coming days about centrist and left-wing candidates standing aside in round two to concentrate the anti-RN vote, as well as much crying about the elimination of the old Front Républicain (when the other parties agreed to keep the far-right out).

However, it would take a huge upset to overturn the only conclusion that can be reached from this first round of voting: the RN is now unquestionably the dominant political force in France. 



Nonetheless, what remains to be decided in the coming week is highly crucial. 

It is the difference between a far-right government with complete control over the National Assembly and a far-right government with limited power because the Assembly is divided. 

The seat forecasts for the RN now range from 260 to 310. Given that 289 seats represent an absolute majority, there is clearly still much to play for.

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To reduce the damage to their cause, French President Emmanuel Macron's centrists and the left-wing New Popular Front alliance will urge supporters to vote tactically in the second round on July 7. Even if their preferred candidate has been eliminated, voters will be encouraged to support whoever is running against the RN in their area.

 However, the problem with this type of party order is that fewer and fewer individuals follow it. 

The removal of the humiliation that used to accompany a vote for the RN has been a long process, but it can now safely be considered complete.

Another challenge for RN opponents is the significant number of so-called triangular votes in round two, which refers to constituencies where not two, but three candidates will compete next Sunday. Usually, one from the center, far right, and left. 

The high number of triangulars is due to high voter turnout, which is caused by the high stakes.



 It's also because the lightning campaign made it impossible for small parties to band together, concentrating the vote in three blocs.

Clearly, when three parties compete in a constituency, the anti-RN vote is less likely to consolidate. Many moderate or left-wing candidates will be on the sidelines, but not everywhere. 

In overall, the country appears to be gripped by a sense of inevitability that the extreme right will prevail. What was once considered an unfathomable vastness is now a real fact-in-waiting. 

This depresses and angers a large number of people, particularly in major places such as Paris, where a pall of darkness is descending. People in the countryside, on the other hand, are likely to disagree.



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